Wednesday, October 31, 2007
The Next President of the United States
One year from this Sunday, Americans will elect the next president of the United States. I think the winner will be clear by the next morning, Nov. 9, 2008. In other words, this will be no election decided by five Republicans on the Supreme Court, who handed the job to W in 2000.
Predicted matchup: Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee
Predicted winner: ... Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the next president of the United States: MIKE HUCKABEE.
Why? It's simple.
The more likeable candidate usually wins. Have you seen Huckabee on talk shows? He's likeable, affable, seems like "one of us." Plus he used to be fat and now he's not, and that makes fat people like him. And with more fat people than ever before in America, that's a (ahem) sizeable bloc.
If nominated by Republicans, Huckabee will come off as a "compassionate conservative," just as W did, and voters lap this stuff up, whether or not the promises come true or not. Just like Bush.
We here at The Cup of Joe voted for both Kerry and Gore in 2004 and 2000, but voters found W more likeable, more like the type of guy you could have a beer and a brat with. The same held true with Clinton over Dole (and Perot) in 1996, and Clinton over Bush I (and Perot) in 92. And even "Yale man" Bush I was perceived of as more likeable than Michael Dukakis in '88.
Competence doesn't matter, my friends. Likeability does.
And if you believe the polls, a good chunk of the population already has decided, however irrationally, that it doesn't like Hillary Clinton, or anybody with that last name.
If Mike Huckabee wins one year from today, I shutter to think what the Supreme Court will look like in 2012, after a Baptist Preacher who doesn't believe in Evolution has as many as three picks for the court.
This wolf of a candidate called Mike comes off as a sheep on The Daily Show With John Stewart -- so charming and seemingly moderate -- but what will happen if our next three justices are devotees to Intelligent Design?
Shudder now, my friends.
And Happy Halloween.